contact@marketbeat.com That is a significant difference because at a forward P/E of 10x AbbVie stock looks like a solid buy opportunity, but at a P/E of 20x, when we consider the risk/challenge of Humira's LOE, prospective investors may prefer to maintain a watching brief as opposed to opening a position. Between September 2021 and April 2022, AbbVie stock went on a sensational bull run, gaining 62% and hitting an all-time peak of $174. Your current $100 investment may be up to $188.28 in 2028. I'm on twitter @edmundingham. AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) pays an annual dividend of $5.92 per share and currently has a dividend yield of 3.83%. The shining star in the aesthetics business is Botox, which increased sales by 45% year over year to $477 million in the first quarter of 2021. When I began this post it was in my mind to give AbbVie stock a "Hold" rating owing to an underwhelming - on some levels - set of Q2'22 earnings, some concerns around high revenue generating products such as Imbruvica, Juvederm, and Restasis, the disappearance of the Women's Health division, the imminent LOE for Humira and the high levels of debt. Johnson & Johnson is rushing toward a patent cliff but a new shelf offering registration suggests itis gearing up for acquisitions. Other profitable therapies include but are not limited to SKYRIZI for psoriasis, RINVOQ for rheumatoid arthritis and IMBRUVICA and VENCLEXTA for chronic leukemia conditions. According to 34 stock analysts, the average 12-month stock price forecast for AbbVie stock is $166.14, which predicts an increase of 7.62%. Skyrizi has shown superiority to Humira in fields such as plaque psoriasis by a statistically significant amount, with a comparable safety profile, whilst Rinvoq has shown superiority in e.g. Revance Therapeutics gapped up 54.34% on January 9, and built upon those gains in February. As we look beyond 2025, we expect combined sales for Skyrizi and Rinvoq to exceed the peak revenues achieved by Humira, which was more than $21 billion. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. As of 2023 February 22, Wednesday current price of ABBV stock is 151.340$ and our data indicates that the asset price has been in an uptrend for the past 1 year (or since its inception).. Abbvie stock price as been showing a rising tendency so we believe that similar market segments were very popular in the given time frame. AbbVie saw a increase in short interest in February. The major market events for the week ahead right in your inbox. What is a Good Dividend Yield? The stock projection varied from the low price target of $135 to the high of $200. Based on earnings estimates, AbbVie will have a dividend payout ratio of 54.11% next year. Naturally, if there is a more effective and safe drug than Humira available for the same indication, then physicians are likely to prescribe it over Humira, or a Humira biosimilar. We do not make any representations or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the information that is provided on this page. It is a Top 50 Company regarding diversification and a member of the Dow Jones Sustainability World Index and the S&P ESG Index. Note that analysts ABBV stock forecasts can be wrong. Our Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) and Target Market Determination provides important information about our products and who our products are more likely to be suited to Capital.com does not provide financial or investment advice and you should seek independent advice if you are unsure of the risks or whether our products are suitable for you. (AbbVie data). The consensus among Wall Street research analysts is that investors should "hold" ABBV shares. The division delivered >$1.65bn in sales in Q2'22, up >15% year-on-year, and with Vraylar, Ubrelvy and possibly Qulipta all earmarked for blockbuster sales - $4bn in the case of Vraylar - my forecasting suggests this division could double in size by 2030, from ~$6.6bn revenues generated in FY22, to >$13.5bn by 2030. Management puts this down to "delayed market recovery for new patients starting therapy in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia ("CLL") and increasing competition" and has downgraded its FY22 guidance as a result. AbbVie Stock Forecast 2023 $165.00 In the last five quarters, AbbVie's Price Target has risen from $122.84 to $162.12 - a 31.98% increase. Disclaimer. Negative dynamics for AbbVie shares will prevail with possible volatility of 1.976%. Management initially blamed slow take-up post pandemic for the drug's declining sales, but Gonzalez also told JPM Conference attendees that "new competitive entrants has significantly lowered our sales expectations for Imbruvica". I haven't included Epcoritamab sales in my forecasts this time, but I hope to adjust the table before Q3'22 results are announced. AbbVie has been increasing its dividend for 51 years. As we can see above one of either Skyrizi or Rinvoq has now been approved for all of the same indications as Humira is, except for Hidradenitis Suppurativa, although Rinvoq is undergoing a Phase study in this indication. It is generally accepted however that 2023 will see the entrants into the US market of several generic versions of Humira - which works by inhibiting Tumor Necrosis Factor ("TNF"), an inflammation causing protein - from the likes of Viatris (VTRS), Organon (OGN), Pfizer (PFE), Amgen (AMGN), and several more companies involved in the development and sale of generic or biosimilar drugs. When looking for ABBV stock forecasts, it's important to bear in mind that analysts' forecasts can be wrong. Compare your portfolio performance to leading indices and get personalized stock ideas based on your portfolio. . ABBV-916 is targeting Alzheimer's and it is an anti-amyloid antibody, with a similar mechanism of action ("MoA") to recently approved Leqembi, developed by Biogen (BIIB) / Eisai, and likely soon-to-be approved Donanemab, developed by Eli Lilly. Management believes these 2 drugs could one day generate $15bn in peak sales, going a long way to solving the Humira loss of exclusivity ("LOE") problem. What is ABBV's Earnings Per Share (EPS) forecast for 2023-2025? The stocks growth marks a significant outperformance over the broader markets. Free Stock Analysis Report: See The True Value of Any Stock, The Best Strategy For Your Small Trading Account. It now expects full-year profit in the range of $13.92-$14.12 a share. In the next year, analysts expect Free Cash Flow to reach $26.97B - an increase of 58.68%. We expect that to happen in 2027 with continued significant growth anticipated in the following years. To see all exchange delays and terms of use please see Barchart's disclaimer. The lowest target is $136.35 and the highest is $210. As we can see the immunology division consists of only 3 assets yet by my calculation, will likely account for 50% of AbbVie's revenues in 2022 (to calculate 2022 sales revenues by product, since we do not yet have final figures, I have used 9m 2022 figures and assumed Q4 revenues will be the average of the previous 3 quarters). Bringing RGX314 would be a coup for AbbVie although I am forecasting for only $2bn in peak revenues in 2030 as a hedge against the risk that this candidate does not make it to market on safety grounds. As well as the stock price gains AbbVie has always paid a handsome dividend - which has increased by 270% since the Pharma's inception, currently paying $1.48 per quarter, for a current yield of 4% - the highest in the large Pharmaceutical sector. approvals of Humira, Skyrizi, Rinvoq (AbbVie JPM Healthcare conference presentation). On 14 January 2022, the FDA approved Abbvies arthritis treatment drug, Rinvoq (upadacitinib), for the treatment of adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis. First of all, as shown in the table above I forecast product sales out to 2030. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. Neurology also looks strong although aesthetics, eye care and oncology have something to prove. Export data to Excel for your own analysis. This means that . In other words, no Humira, no problem! AbbVie Stock: ABBV Overview and Dividend Potential, Wall Street Sees 23% Upside In Revance, Maker Of Botox Competitor (ABBV), Analyst Confidence in Eli Lilly Boosted by Product Pipeline (ABBV), Johnson & Johnson: Taking The Bull By The Horns? Please. AbbVie made the bold decision to take on a heavy debt load and bid for Allergan, with the deal being completed in 2020. That is substantially higher than the 12% CAGR achieved between 2018 - 2022, although that period includes the additional revenues from Allergan. Finally I can present a target price for AbbVie stock in 2023 using DCF / EBITDA analysis. Finally I can present a target price for AbbVie stock in 2023 using DCF / EBITDA analysis. The company provided earnings per share (EPS) guidance of $10.70- for the period. The company is focused on research and has a number of collaborations and partnerships to that end. Venclexta - a "first-in-class BCL-2 inhibitor for multiple hematological malignancies", according to Gonzalez, is forecast for strong growth, whilst Gonzalez has name checked 3 new drugs he expects to be approved by 2026. After creating the income statement I prepare the discounted cash flow/EBITDA multiple analysis. AbbVie's total revenue grew a solid 51% to $50.2 billion over the last twelve month period, compared to $33.0 billion in 2019. Always do your own research on a stocks price performance and predictions before making an investment. These are mostly related to the US Food and Drug Administrations (FDA) approval of Abbvies drug Rinvoq for ulcerative colitis and positive top-line results from the Phase 3 induction study U-EXCEL. (AbbVie JPM Healthcare conference presentation). The median estimate represents a +5.72% increase from the last price of 156.07. Abbvies haematologic oncology portfolio, neuroscience portfolio and aesthetics portfolio reported net revenues of $1.65bn, $1.49bn and $1.37bn, respectively. That certainly won't derail the oncology division however. According to CEO Gonzalez: Over the long-term, aesthetics continues to be an extremely attractive underpenetrated market with significant growth potential. Excluding items, AbbVie earned $3.31 per share, beating estimates of $3.29 . 326 E 8th St #105, Sioux Falls, SD 57103 AbbVie has been the subject of 9 research reports in the past 90 days, demonstrating strong analyst interest in this stock. The current consensus among 24 polled investment analysts is to Buy stock in Abbvie Inc. Invest alongside the model portfolio or simply access the investment bank-grade financial models and research. AbbVie's stock was trading at $161.61 on January 1st, 2023. View ABBV analyst ratings or view top-rated stocks. Currently, the company has a "stable" rating, but that must be maintained or investors will perceive the company as unsafe to invest in and that will drag the share price down rapidly. Although Wallet Investor did not provide targets for 2030, its longer-term Abbvie stock prediction expected the price to hit $300.386 in June 2027. Eye Care, Other products Division Projected Revenues to 2030 (my table and assumptions ). AbbVie's stock is owned by many different institutional and retail investors. I do much more than just articles at Haggerston BioHealth: Members get access to model portfolios, regular updates, a chat room, and more. The company has a robust pipeline of new products that are in some stage of clinical trials. Should I buy or sell AbbVie stock right now? The difference between trading assets and CFDs. To be sure, AbbVie is modeling for a tough year in 2023 for the aesthetics market. The firm's revenue for the quarter was up 1.6% compared to the same quarter last year. AbbVie Stock Forecast 2022 - 2025 - 2030 | StockForecast.com GB While some of the gains are due to investor perception that it is a strong company, some view ABBV as a defensive stock, with most of the other stocks in the sector also doing well. There are currently 9 hold ratings and 7 buy ratings for the stock. AbbVie's free cash flow yield is 10.5% compared to 4.3% for Johnson & Johnson . Other approved ADC's targeting the c-Met protein, a validated target in NSCLC, include Novartis Tabrecta, which has been pegged for peak sales of ~$1.5bn, which seems a realistic target for Teliso given how large the lung cancer market is - the largest of all oncology markets. AbbVie updated its FY 2024 earnings guidance on Friday, February, 10th. Investors do not seem to be taking the bait, however, as AbbVie's share price has slipped by >7% across the past month, and >5% across the past 5 days. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc.2019. AbbVie, like its parent Abbot Laboratories, is a well-established dividend growth stock. Net earnings also saw a steep rise to $4.49bn from $3.55bn, while net revenue jumped to $13.54bn from 13.01bn. As such, I have decreased my own expectations for 2022 based on simply doubling H1'22 revenues to get a FY22 figure, and downgrading growth expectations to 3% per annum until 2026. Retail sales were up but so was inflation which meant more volatility for stocks. AbbVie had a net margin of 20.39% and a trailing twelve-month return on equity of 154.52%. Join the 500.000+ traders worldwide that chose to trade with Capital.com, Also you can contact us: AbbVie has a P/B Ratio of 15.97. 16 Wall Street research analysts have issued "buy," "hold," and "sell" ratings for AbbVie in the last year. Real-time analyst ratings, insider transactions, earnings data, and more. Receive regular, detailed analysis focused on biotech and healthcare stocks. I write about Biotech, Pharma and Healthcare stocks and share investment tips. Johnson & Johnson Free Cash Flow Forecast for 2023 - 2025 - 2030. AbbVie passed that onto its 2022 guidance. Botox accounts for the bulk of the companys Aesthetics portfolio revenue and about 4% of the net as of 2022. It is important to do your own research, and remember that your decision to trade depends on your attitude to risk, your expertise in the market, the spread of your investment portfolio and how comfortable you feel about losing money. I'm on twitter @edmundingham. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. The risks associated with aesthetics are that the industry can be severely buffeted by economic headwinds, as these products are more consumer focused and are often considered an unnecessary expenditure in times of hardship. Snowflake Reports Weak Guidance: Is the Growth Snowflake Melting? on the strength of its future rather than present portfolio. American Consumer News, LLC dba MarketBeat 2010-2023. A Warner Bros. It should be noted that the strength of the competition AbbVie faces from other Pharma's desperate to claim a larger share of the immunology markets after Humira's LOE is fierce - Eli Lilly's (LLY) Olumiant, Pfizer's (PFE) Zeljanz, Amgen's Otezla, Bristol Myers Squibb's (BMY) Zeposia, Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) Tremfya, Novartis' (NVS) Cosentyx and Regeneron (REGN) / Sanofi's (SNY) Dupixent to name a few. In summary, the total revenue increase of just 4% year-on-year in Q2'22 might disappoint a few investors, as might the downgraded guidance, although it is hard to argue that AbbVie is a bad investment when we consider that the Pharma also pays a dividend of $1.41 per quarter, yielding 4% per annum, drove operating earnings of $3.925bn on a GAAP basis, and trades at a >10% discount to my calculated target price. I have been maintaining a revenue forecasting table for AbbVie's products which I have amended based on Q2'22 and H1'22 results, and the slightly downgraded guidance issued for 2022 - management now expects adjusted earnings per share ("EPS") of $13.78 - $13.98, representing growth of 17% at the midpoint. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Perhaps this is an example of how ruthless management can be when encountering falling sales, and a warning that not all company divisions are guaranteed to thrive. The company issued revenue guidance of -. Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst for City Index and FOREX.com, commenting to Capital.com, said: As of 30 June, analyst ratings compiled by MarketBeat shared different price targets for Abbvie stock. For the next year, analysts predict that Free Cash Flow will reach 6.91B - an increase of 1.94%. The company reported its first revenue for Botox competitor Daxxify. With the Hughes Optioneering Strategy, youll soon learn that the safest option for new accounts is options themselves! The company reported $3.60 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $3.54 by $0.06. Multidrug Resistant Bacteria Treatment Market - Growth, Trends, COVID-19 Impact, and Forecasts (2023 - 2030) Published: March 2, 2023 at 2:55 a.m. Get short term trading ideas from the MarketBeat Idea Engine. If youre new to trading, then youve probably heard the wrong thing about optionsthat theyre risky, unpredictable, or difficult. The drug is now approved in severe Rheumatoid Arthritis, active Psoriatic Arthritis, moderate to severe Atopic Dermatitis, Ulcerative Colitis, active Ankylosing Spondylitis, with Crohn's Disease the next approval on the list. It is in business to discover, develop, manufacture and market pharmaceuticals globally but in a way that best serves the needs of patients and the global community. Skyrizi and Rinvoq will together achieve a higher peak sales figure than even Humira could manage, even while Humira is still making a substantial top line contribution, still accounting for as much of 7% of AbbVie's total sales in 2030. I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ABBV, BMY either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. All rights reserved. Neuroscience looks highly promising too, and aesthetics capable of driving some respectable growth driven by old stager Botox. Morningstar: 2019 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. What intrigues here is the possibility of RGX-314, an anti-VEGF gene therapy that Gonzalez believes "has the potential to be a one-time treatment for wet AMD, diabetic retinopathy and other chronic retinal conditions". Gonzalez has vigorously defended AbbVie against accusations of price manipulation, but the company is renowned for pushing drug prices up annually and should its powerful lobbies become less powerful in the face of external pressure, once again, the sector will start to look unattractive for investors. Their ABBV share price forecasts range from $140.00 to $200.00. That led to an overall 6% year-on-year gain of 6%, and a 13% sequential gain. Over the next nine years, experts believe that GSK's Free Cash Flow will grow at a rate of 1.98%. Venclexta continues to pick up momentum with sales up 16% to >$500m in Q2'22, and I forecast the drug to exceed $3.2bn in revenues by the end of the decade. Their combined revenues are expected to reach $7.5bn in 2022, and Gonzalez told the audience at JPM that: Skyrizi and Rinvoq are now on pace to deliver more than $17.5 billion in combined sales, risk adjusted sales in 2025, well above our previous expectations. Discovery Company. The consensus rating was moderate buy based on 16 analysts ratings, with 10 recommending buy, five hold and sell. As we can see, AbbVie is likely to generate some impressive cash flow based on its operating margins, which begin at 32%. For the next nine years, the forecast is for Revenue to grow by 3.57%. P/B Ratios above 3 indicate that a company could be overvalued with respect to its assets and liabilities. View the best growth stocks for 2023 here. This has been in spite of a string of macroeconomic headwinds such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war that has contributed to record high inflation in the US and the UK, and the companys psoriatic arthritis drug Adalimumab, known as Humira, facing biosimilar rivals in the US from 2023. And with a dividend yield of 4.9%, AbbVie is quite attractive for investors yearning for . Year-to-date, the stock was up slightly more than 12% while benchmark global indices have all fallen sharply amid surging inflation, interest rate hikes and slowdown worries. AbbVie discounted cash flow analysis. Please. Skyrizi - which inhibits the activities of IL-23 - a naturally occurring cytokine that is involved in inflammatory and immune responses - and Rinvoq - a member of the janus kinase inhibitor drug class - fit this profile. Between September 2021 and April 2022, AbbVie stock went on a sensational bull run, gaining 62% and hitting an all-time peak of $174. Trial results demonstrated an overall response rate of 63% and a median duration of response of 12 months, where 39% of patients had already tried a CAR-T cell therapy. Projections are based on making fundamental and technical studies of the ABBV stock price performance. AbbVie stock forecast 2022 - 2025 - 2030 with analysis AbbVie stock stood at $162.110000610352 on 2022-03-31. forecast for 2023 is $159.42, forecast for 2024 is $156.65, forecast for 2025 is $139.68, forecast for 2026 is $124.48, Today, AbbVie operates as a diversified multi-national pharmaceutical company with a patient-centric approach to research. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). writing - trading down slightly from its all-time high of >$160 achieved in early December last year. PEG Ratios above 1 indicate that a company could be overvalued. AbbVie has 5 focus areas for its research and products. Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BMY, GILD, ABBV either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. As we can see, as per management's guidance revenues fall between 2022 and 2023, before recovering and growing in each year after. AbbVie says it will pay down debt of $4bn in 2023, which will "bring cumulative debt pay down ~$34bn", but the company is heavily reliant on maintaining an investment grade rating. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm posted $3.31 EPS. The dividend payout ratio of AbbVie is 89.56%. Post-spin, AbbVie emerged as a research-based biopharma that has more than doubled in size. Drug development has not traditionally been one of AbbVie's strengths - it has not had to be - but we ought to see the positive results of heavy investment into the oncology pipeline over the next 5-7 years, and by 2030, I believe this division could account for >17% of AbbVie's total revenues. 67.71% of the stock of AbbVie is held by institutions. The important point here is that physicians will not necessarily be under any pressure to switch patients from Humira to a biosimilar, given, as Gonzalez puts it: there won't be any difference between the biosimilar and Humira from a co-pay standpoint or any kind of a step editing. I am modelling for AbbVie to grow revenues at a compound annual growth rate of ~5% between now and 2030 with growth accelerating in the latter half of the decade. This suggests a possible upside of 3.2% from the stock's current price. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Wallet Investor suggested that the price could hit $300.386 in June 2027. Data from two Phase 3 induction studies and one maintenance study supported the approval. I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BMY, GILD, ABBV either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. The review period was extended by three months in order for the FDA to review additional data submitted by AbbVie. The five-year dividend growth rate is just below 18%. Having dived into the numbers however and looked ahead to 2030 through the eyes and guidance of management, my conclusion is that investors can probably buy AbbVie stock at current price with reasonably high hopes of making a decent ROI - perhaps 15 - 20% in the next 12 - 18 months, whilst also benefiting from a generous dividend. Skyrizi has also been approved to treat Crohn's Disease, an added bonus and another multi-billion dollar market. Finally, AbbVie was able to raise its financial . AbbVie income statement forecast (My table and assumptions). AbbVie Oncology Division Forward Revenue Projections (my table and assumtpions). Enjoy your holiday weekend and catch up on our most read stories this week. With a 5-year investment, the revenue is expected to be around +88.28%. ABBV Stock 12 Months Forecast. In-depth profiles and analysis for 20,000 public companies. Whether these factors make ABBV a good investment for you or not will depend on your portfolio composition, investment goals and risk profile, among other factors. Abbvie has a strong pipeline of projects ahead, and has recently received US FDA approval of its ulcerative colitis drug Rinvoq. Sign up for MarketBeat All Access to gain access to MarketBeat's full suite of research tools: You have already added five stocks to your watchlist. The average price target is $163.64 with a high forecast of $190.00 and a low forecast of $133.00. With no LOEs on the horizon, it is relatively plain sailing for the company ex-Humira, and the performance of Skyrizi and Rinvoq - to date at least - suggests management does have this massive patent cliff covered. In this post, I will discuss Q2'22 results, as well as the long-term outlook for AbbVie based on the latest information, goals, risks, and financial modeling analysis, to try to establish a target price for AbbVie stock. Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. Having so much debt in a prevailing inflationary environment is also unattractive. Allergan plc was an Ireland-based pharmaceutical company focused on health-oriented aesthetic products and is the owner of Botox. Sales are expected to recover in H2'22, however, and forecast year-on-year growth. The average ABBVIE INC stock forecast 2023 represents a 1.86% increase from the last price of $153.729995727539. Among the more notable are ImmuVen, Pharamcyclics and Allergan plc. With AbbVie's revenues accelerating past $80bn in 2030 (by my calculation), and cash flow generated in that year being >$25bn, after applying discount factors for each year I reach a price target of $176 - the average of DCF - $162 per share - and EBITDA - $189 per share - calculations. However, there are some general principles that can be followed in order to improve the accuracy of stock price predictions. The P/E ratio of AbbVie is 23.61, which means that it is trading at a less expensive P/E ratio than the market average P/E ratio of about 126.03. Based on an average daily volume of 5,600,000 shares, the days-to-cover ratio is currently 2.1 days. 16 analysts have issued 12-month price targets for AbbVie's shares. In general, it is important to pay attention to trends, both in the overall market and in the specific sector that a company is in. In my model I have then reduced revenues by 20% between 2024 - 2026, and then by 10% per annum between 2027 - 2030. American biopharmaceutical company Abbvie (ABBV) has surged nearly 13% year to date (YTD), and 35% year-over-year (YOY), as of 30 June. The analysts 12-month consensus ABBV stock price target was $159.75. For full year 2022, Abbvie predicted the adjusted diluted EPS guidance range at $14.00 to $14.20 and $13.92 to $14.12. This indicates that the company will be able to sustain or increase its dividend. Capital Com is an execution-only service provider. Top institutional shareholders include Geode Capital Management LLC (1.91%), Morgan Stanley (1.79%), Moneta Group Investment Advisors LLC (1.65%), Price T Rowe Associates Inc. MD (1.15%), Norges Bank (1.06%) and Legal & General Group Plc (0.66%).
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