For Women Scotland, conducted by Panelbase, reported in the Times, 18 Dec 2021Data, MurrayBlackburnMackenzie, conducted by Survation, Nov 2021Report I Data. Welcome to my summary of the latest national voting intention poll from each pollster currently operating in Britain. That opinion poll lead so far appears unaffected by Nicola Sturgeons announcement that she was standing down as first minister in mid February 2023. There is a wide variety of timeframes used on this topic. Britain Elects. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here. Kemi Badenoch, who has proved popular . This feed updates continuously 24/7 so check back regularly. What has happened to the once-great British Airways? The government is becoming increasingly authoritarian and our media is run by a handful of billionaires, most of whom reside overseas and all of them have strong political allegiances and financial motivations. All Rights Reserved. Should the public's feeling remain largely down. tax was introduced a year early in Scotland by the UK government. Slovakia's Smer back on top of opinion polls ahead of snap election bne IntelliNews 10:02 27-Feb-23. Charles and Camilla break silence after Frogxit fall out with business-as-usual engagements, The Palace has not yet commented on the move to remove Prince Harry and Meghan from Frogmore - instead sending out a release about forthcoming official engagements, No prominent backers appear for Ash Regan despite claims endorsements would arrive this week. This includes a majority of those who agree the people should be freely able to express their transgender identity. Yougov (February 20) which placed the Yes side on 46.2% and the No side on 53.8%, post adjusting for undecided voters. Business & professional services. /Which party are you most inclined to support? Politics.co.uks current Westminster projections are also drawn through an aggregate extrapolation of the data on election polls. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. The majority of people believe that a doctors approval should be needed for a person to change their sex in law. The figures show the Conservatives on 25% of the vote (+1 from our previous survey on 1-2 November) to Labour's 48% (-2). Polling of British voters on whether the United Kingdom should rejoin the European Union. On moral issues, do we really want to take the American way? Published by Statista Research Department , Feb 15, 2023. excludes 16 and 17 year-olds and did not ascertain likelihood to vote. According to YouGov's latest poll of Welsh voters, the Tories are set to be left with just two MPs in the country after the next general election. The survey puts Yes and No roughly neck-and-neck, which has been a consistent trend in polling for over a year. The historic oil recipe is based on what was used at the coronation of Queen Elizabeth II, the formula of which has been used for hundreds of years. The latest YouGov panel has shown a shift against independence in several areas. The use of this format has been criticised by pro-independence politicians. on public opinion. The latest YouGov poll, of 1,088 voters in Scotland from January 23 to January 26, found that Sturgeon's approval rating had slipped into negative territory, from +7 to -4, since October. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. It remains to be seen how support for independence will pan out now Rishi Sunak has become prime minister, King Charles III has succeeded Elizabeth II, and as Nicola Sturgeon steps down as first minister. A total of 21 per cent said they didnt know., UnHerd Britain 2023, published on 10 Feb 2023Full results, YouGov poll, reported in The Times on 05 Feb 2023. YouGov: The Times: GB 2,003 23% 46%: 9% 4% 7% 8% 3%. Although we'd had a YouGov earlier in February, that was for the Scottish Opinion Monitor (Scoop) and YouGov have since clarified the questions were slightly different and thus not comparable. Our current polling average is based on polls by Savanta ComRes (fieldwork completed May 4). Last updated Feb 28, 2023 View all Articles (514) Voting Intention: Con 23%, Labour 46% politics 1 day ago Trackers Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. In terms of translating these election poll findings into a projected make up of the current House of Commons, Politics.co.uk has used the Butler method to calculate the current swing between the parties compared to the 2019 General Election. He is the co-founder of poll aggregator Britain Elects. The poll, commissioned by WalesOnline has found support for the Tories in Wales now sits at just 19%. The headline data used in calculating these averages has been drawn from that laid out in the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Opinium, Survation, SavantaComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Techne, Delta Poll,and Ipsos Mori. In early November 2021, the furore over the resignation of the Conservative MP Owen Patterson saw the trend Conservative vote share fall by a further 3%. Data collected at regular intervals about or relating to Voting Intention, tracking changes over time. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023 places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. By the time that the SNP under Alex Salmond had won an outright majority at Holyrood in 2011, support for Scottish independence had started to nudge back up towards 40%. Respondents saying they would prefer Scotland to vote for or against independence have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively, while respondents saying they "don't mind either way" have been assigned as undecided. To donate or subscribe to The London Economic, click here. Consumer packaged goods (CPG) Eating & drinking. ", Nicola Sturgeon claims no laws were broken during ferry contract scandal, SNP's 'politics of division' does 'not change' people's lives, says Anas Sarwar, The SNP benches will be a LOT quieter in future according to these new polls. ", Question asked was "In principle, do you think there should or More Scots are seeing the reality of SNP rule. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. With plans for the establishment of a Scottish parliament in Holyrood by the Blair government in the late 1990s, support for Scottish independence rose once again. ((__lxGc__=window.__lxGc__||{'s':{},'b':0})['s']['_222513']=__lxGc__['s']['_222513']||{'b':{}})['b']['_680898']={'i':__lxGc__.b++}; Never miss the day's key interactions and exchanges in parliament. Scottish opinion polls (Westminster voting intention) since the December 2019 general election are listed here . In the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, one in which the Scottish government took responsibility for the handling of the virus in Scotland, there were signs of sustained backing for Scottish independence for the first time. Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If another Scottish Independence Referendum were held today, how would you vote?" Big names to go would include Joanna Cherry and Mhairi Black. With the Russian invasion of Ukraine heavily dominating the UK news agenda, the position of the UKs political parties became somewhat becalmed during the spring on 2022 with no notable movements in the polls. In doing so the Lib Dems would defeat both the deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab, and the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt. In the case of Wales, Politics.co.uk has drawn on the most recent YouGov poll produced on 27 February. Ben Walker is a senior data journalist at the New Statesman and writes extensively about elections and UK public opinion. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems have 9 per cent of the vote (-1), but could be well placed to pick up vital seats in the Blue Wall, where voters would sooner pinch their nose and vote amber over red. Founded by Ben Walker and Lily Jayne Summers. However, coinciding with the roll out of the coronavirus vaccine and the conclusion of Boris Johnsons Brexit deal at the end of 2020, the Conservative party once again opened up a significant election poll lead over Labour. Labour scalps would include Tommy Sheppard, Angus MacNeil, Douglas Chapman and Stewart McDonald. Support for Welsh independence has fallen back to its lowest level in three years, a St David's Day poll for Wales carried out by pollsters YouGov has shown. Ron DeSantis now leads former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in the race for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. In late February 2022, and prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there were some tentative signs that the Conservative position had recovered slightly from its early 2022 lows. The latest Panelbase survey. Scottish Independence Poll Methodology: The above analysis of support for Scottish independence draws from the published polls of a number of leading firms: YouGov, Survation, ComRes, Redfield and Wilton, Panelbase, Detlapoll, Opinium and IpsosMori. In 1997, the Yes side surpassed 40% in the polls for the first time. A report released in 2017, entitled From Indyref1 to Indyref2? A new opinion poll has found that support for the Tories in Wales is in freefall. Those who are likely voters, don't know, or wouldn't vote are excluded. Rather than drop back after IndyRef1, and with the SNP remaining in government in Edinburgh under new first minister Nicola Sturgeon, support for Scottish independence continued to rise. Scots cop claims World's End serial killer committed 'three more murders in Glasgow ', Retired detective Allan Jones claims Sinclair should have been tried for the murders Anna Kenny, Hilda McAuley and Agnes Cooney, Eddie Howe makes damning Ryan Fraser Newcastle admission as Scotland star's 'commitment' questioned. Jeremy Corbyn is not allowed to stand as a Labour MP at the next election would he still get your vote? All rights reserved. Prior to the collapse in Conservative polling in 2022, it was suggested that equalising constituencies may assist the Conservatives by as many as 10 seats, given that the partys seats in the south of England are currently numerically larger than those found elsewhere in the country. Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations to gauge public attitudes to independence. (Excluding Dont Knows the margin is just shy of 70/30, very similar to the margin by which people in polls oppose self-ID generally. All Rights Reserved. Similarly, the above analysis has been conducted based on the existing United Kingdom constituency boundaries. Gender Recognition Act, Tags: Gender Recognition Act, Gender Recognition Reform, Panelbase, poll, survey. Excluding those who declare themselves to be undecided (currently around 6% of the electorate), polling averages from February 2023. places the Yes side at 47.1% and the No side at 52.9%. Please read our privacy policy and terms of use before signing up. Champion Newspapers Limited 20:21 22-Feb-23. YouGov polled a representative sample of 1,081 Welsh voters, aged 16+, between February 3 and February 7 for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University. The current voting intention trend can be seen in the most recent individual polls: Delta Poll (27 February) which placed Labour on 46%, the Conservatives on 31%, and the Liberal Democrts on 8%. YouGov is a global public opinion and data company. Analysis pieces written by YouGovs data journalists based on data collected about or relating to Voting Intention. Coming into the autumn, the Conservatives appeared to have suffered no adverse polling impacts from either their proposed rise in national insurance, or the autumn fuel shortages. Since you are here, we wanted to ask for your help. 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Under this unlikely but not impossible scenario, the Electoral Calculus seat predictor says Labour would end up with 37 Scottish MPs, the SNP would have 10, the Tories seven and the Lib Dems five. We also may change the frequency you receive our emails from us in order to keep you up to date and give you the best relevant information possible. Can the public identify the Deputy Leader of the Labour Party? Two new UK-wide opinion polls have added weight to the growing belief that Labour would be close to catching the SNP if a General Election were held anytime soon. The pollster found Labour on 50 per cent of the vote an increase of three points from their last poll. Most Recent Independence Poll, YouGov 17th - 20th of February 2023 No Yes Don't Know Headline Excluding Don't Knows 49% (+1) 54% (+1 / -1) 42% (nc) 46% (-1 / +1) 9% (-2) By-Elections By-elections By-Election Result: Dyce, Bucksburn and Danestone February 27, 2023 Comments Off Should a general election be held today, this would likely lead to the following composition of the House of Commons: The result of a general election is projected as a Labour victory with the party securing an outright majority of 46 seats. The poll was conducted for The Sunday Times over the past week as a review for the Scottish Prison Service found that the process of admitting transgender people to prisons should be improved in the wake of the Isla Bryson case. Polling conducted before the 2014 Scottish independence referendum can be found here.. At the end of the 1970s, support for Scottish independence was polling at little more than 10%. As a smaller poll, the margin of error on the major categories is approximately 4.4 percentage points, compared to 3 for typical polls of 1000 respondents. In the aftermath of the 2019 General Election, the Conservative party enjoyed a healthy lead in the opinion polls. If you can, please show your appreciation for our free content by donating whatever you think is fair to help keep TLE growing and support real, independent, investigative journalism. At the heart of our company is a global online community, where millions of people and thousands of political, cultural and commercial organizations engage in a continuous conversation about their beliefs, behaviours and brands. ", 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, COVID-19 vaccination in the United Kingdom, Opinion polling for the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2022-0098-judgment.pdf, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence&oldid=1142782908, Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union, Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union, Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers, Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has no taxation powers.
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